A customised, “made to measure” approach to investing in life sciences, designed to navigate uncertainty and randomness. The method blends philosophical foundations with a structured multi-lens framework.
Volatility, randomness, and shocks are opportunities, not risks.
Seek businesses that improve under stress, moving from fragile → robust → antifragile.
Build flexibility via multiple projects, clients, and revenue streams rather than dependence on one factor.
Cap downside, leave upside unbounded (benefit from rare tail events).
Stay away from models that collapse when faced with unexpected shocks.
Seek heuristics, not rigid rules, that make Convexity a natural outcome
Promote convex thinking—turn uncertainty into asymmetric upside.
TCE-grade: Trustworthy, Capable, Energetic. Ethical leadership is non-negotiable.
Every company is “made to measure”; assess unique molecule/service mix and economics.
Pipeline Lens: Asset size, stage diversity, risk balance.
Optionality Lens: Future expansion avenues and flexibility.
Earnings Power Lens: Long-term sustainable profit capacity.
Cash Flow Lens: Focus on operating and free cash flow growth.
Capability & Capacity Lens: Scientific expertise, infrastructure, scalability.
Barriers Lens: Entry barriers for rivals; exit barriers for clients.
Mistakes & Pivots Lens: Evidence of learning from frequent, small errors.
Self-awareness Lens: Independent thinking, patience, and avoiding herd mentality..
Essential in volatile markets.
Broadly defined beyond valuation—includes leadership strength and business evolution.
Fail small and early (drug discovery context), scale gradually.
Long-term investing (10+ years) > short-term forecasts. “Time in the market does the heavy lifting.”
Do not attempt market timing. Buy when it feels hardest (deep undervaluation), and sell when it feels hardest (overvaluation).
